Too Early for Oscar Predictions?

Best Pictures

Might as well be a lock:

The Human Factor/Invictus
Mandela biopic directed by Clint Eastwood. It could technically be horrible and the academy would still nominate it

Up
The 10 nominee change was basically made for Pixar and envelope pushing blockbusters, so I expect Up to definitely make it (but only because of 10 spots)

I hope make it

The Hurt Locker
Loved it. Unbiased (IIRC) Iraq flick. All about the soldiers and the psychological effects of war.

Moon
The whole movie rests on Sam Rockwell, most under-appreciated actor, who performs gracefully.

Definitely has a shot

Nine
Musical with a killer cast. Day-Lewis is featured and he's pretty damn picky.

Amelia
Biopic starring Hillary Swank, Academy sweetheart

Avatar
James Cameron's technologically advanced sci-fi epic. It'll break ground even if it sucks.

Not Sure

Shutter Island
Scorsese has been screwed in the past, and while I'm dying to see SI it doesn't look to be Academy's cup of tea.

The Road
Got pushed back for technical reasons, than again so it'll be around for Oscar season. Bit of a red flag but I'm still excited

Lovely Bones
Hyped to be inventive and fantasy based with Peter Jackson, but not sure of the content.

Wild Cards

Public Enemies
Haven't seen it yet (but I want too) but it only has 60% on RottenTomatoes

Inglourious Basterds
Doesn't appear to be Academy's cup of tea, but Cannes reviews pegged it as not as action-packed (aka violent) as it appears. Very talkative.

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Ledger's last movie, but hopefully not Gilliam's. Gilliam isn't critics favorite guy unfortunately.

Star Trek
Academy got a lot of heat for Dark Knight snub. I seriously doubt this will show up, but I think we'll end up with the 5 nominees we would have gotten anyways plus 5 others, which could be pander picks to shut up general audience.